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Who'd have thought... Tech predictions you wouldn't bet on

Michael Kanellos CNET News.com

Published: 27 Oct 2003 11:05 GMT

Conspiracy theories run rampant in the high-technology industry, and for good reason. The unexpected often occurs.

Ten years ago, after all, few predicted that a pork-rind-eating grad student at the University of Illinois would revolutionise world commerce. Finland to emerge as a leader in wireless communications and operating systems? The decade of Belgium seemed more likely.

Still, there is a collection of commonly heard predictions that will likely never come true. Videoconferencing, micro-payments and electronic books were expected to be big at one time. Had the general public not found them irritating, they might have been.

Nothing is impossible. In early 2001, Webb McKinney of Hewlett-Packard said PC mergers don't generally work, while Compaq Computer's Mike Winkler and others said Compaq would endure. Five months later, HP bought Compaq. Nonetheless, here's a crop of things that may never come to pass.

1. Apple Computer will adopt Intel chips.

A deal to bring cheap, megahertz-crazy Intel processors to the Mac almost happened in the 1980s, said former Apple CEO John Sculley. "It was probably one of the biggest strategic mistakes Apple ever made," Sculley said recently.

The problem? If Apple ported its operating system to Intel and sold the OS in stores, a clone industry would spring up instantly. Even if lawsuits clamped down on manufacturers, consumers would make their own. Apple would find itself besieged with cheap knockoffs.

2. Microsoft will move to Canada.

Under this theory, Canadians would provide a safe haven for Microsoft from US regulators in exchange for jobs.

Two problems. One, it's based on the notion that Canadians just moved out of log cabins and will do anything for money. That definition actually better describes my home state of Nevada. Second, there is the matter of export laws. Microsoft has to avail itself to US jurisdiction to get its products sold legitimately in America -- that's why the EU can investigate. Moving headquarters won't help.