Comment Articles

IT circa 2008: Spin your crystal balls

Published: 21 Oct 2002 15:04 BST

Thanks to the dozens of you who sent me your views on Gartner's 10 predictions on the future of IT. While I can't reflect all of your opinions, I picked out a few predictions from the list to explore further with your comments. First up is the notion that network capacity will increase faster than computing component capacity, resulting in a shift in the relative cost of remote versus local computing by the end of this decade.

The majority of readers were sceptical that the last mile bandwidth problem would be resolved easily or that users will be satisfied with thin clients, especially given the prodigious specs Gartner proposed for a 2008 vintage desktop PC in prediction #6.

Regarding a move toward a remote, centralised compute services model, some readers pointed out that the growth of broadband services has major hurdles from both corporate and consumer perspectives.

Some readers said the FCC should deregulate the telecoms, hoping that increased competition will lead to faster adoption of broadband. While most corporations aren't bandwidth constrained, their customers and partners are suffering from bandwidth deprivation for a variety of reasons. If e-commerce, e-entertainment, e-government and all the other e-services are to gain more rapid momentum, bandwidth-which is not in short supply-needs to be more affordable, reliable and invested with compelling applications.

As a side note, Andrew Odlyzko of the University of Minnesota Digital Technology Center has some interesting proposals to stimulate broadband growth. Rather than deregulate the telecom monoliths, the industry should focus on delivering services requiring broadband that customers want.

He proposes that the US telecoms industry buy off the music studios -- which generate a pittance (perhaps $15bn) compared to telecom spending -- and make file swapping legal. Odlyzko admits his idea is impractical, but it highlights the perennial chicken and egg problem.

His more practical suggestions are to migrate voice calls to cellular phones, which is already happening, giving the telecom companies a good reason to promote wired broadband services, and to encourage more usage of WiFi (802.11) and ultrawideband wireless technologies.

What is clear is that the demand for broadband is directly related to the cost and benefits derived from the technology, no matter whether the compute resources are local or remote. We all recognise the useful applications, ranging from distance learning to telemedicine to movies on demand, but it will take at least the remainder of this decade for the real shift to an economic model and ecosystem that leverages the bandwidth.