Comment Articles

Cyberterrorists: How real are they? How ready are we?

David Coursey AnchorDesk

Published: 25 Feb 2002 09:53 GMT

One of the problems in dealing with the issue of cybersecurity, especially when it comes to cyberterrorism, is assessing the actual risk -- which is vastly different from the potential risk. In this regard, I am reminded of a cautionary tale from the Cold War.

Beginning in 1957 and continuing into the Kennedy Administration, Washington was concerned that a "missile gap" existed between the Soviet Union and the United States. This was based on intelligence estimates that the USSR possessed more nuclear warheads than the US did. The fear was that the USSR could launch an attack large enough to make it impossible for the US to effectively retaliate.

This gave the Soviets a significant advantage across a number of fronts, even if an actual attack wasn't in the USSR's plans. Needless to say, the threat provoked a tremendous response from the defense establishment. (Read: Spending of tax dollars.) But most Americans, including our elected decision makers, had no way to assess whether the threat was real. Given the secret nature of security programs and the limitations of intelligence gathering, we just had to accept our leaders' assurances.

At the end of the Cold War, Americans learned the missile gap had never existed. We discovered that US estimates of the Soviet arsenal were significantly overstated and that, if anything, the Soviets were more afraid of our first-strike capabilities than we were of theirs.

While there are doubtless threats to the US technology infrastructure -- as well as to our individual computers and home/business networks -- it's important not to overstate that risk. On the other hand, I think it's fair to bet we're so under-protected that any near-term steps we take, no matter how severe, still won't be overreaching. But let's make sure that as we protect ourselves, we protect against a wide variety of everyday threats as well as the extraordinary ones of the bin Laden era.

In an earlier column, I described the landscape that is leading to the great network lockdown of 2002. In this column, instead of looking at what is, I'd like to hazard some predictions as to what will take place in the coming year or so. Here are my best guesses.