Comment Articles

What really matters with mobiles

Guy Kewney AnchorDesk

Published: 19 Jul 2001 20:28 BST

Questions, questions; and no certain answers. So we're surely not surprised to read about falling Nokia sales? How can the City of London be "surprised" about such things? And above all, how can the City actually be surprised that Nokia sales had not dropped even more?

I think the important thing to understand about the high technology phone business, is that there isn't a single, unanimous "finance" view of it. There are just too many unknowables, unknowns, and false facts, confusing the picture.

First, there is the popular view that "one day, there will be an exposé about mobile phones which makes them seem as dangerous as cigarettes."

Next, there's a widespread misunderstanding about the amount of money needed to get the "third generation" or UMTS phone network going.

On top of that, there's the day-dream the mobile phone networks themselves are indulging in, about the amount of money people are prepared to spend on "data"

And finally, there are areas of horrible ignorance, not just in financial circles, but also in people who can claim some high-tech expertise, about what is possible with wireless technology.

There's an awful lot of potential with any communications hardware, but that potential all depends on standards. And notoriously, standards are unpredictable.

But unfortunately, many financial analysts behave as if standards are commodities. And they also forget, I think, that consumers are every bit as unpredictable as technology.

Take the case of "radiation" -- three phone makers have promised to include "health warnings" on microwave dangers. Now, I'm not an expert on radiation; but I've developed my opinions on the subject after some years watching health hazards unfold, and I remain convinced that there are dozens and dozens of things you can do to yourself -- legally -- which are far more dangerous.

But if I feel confident -- personally -- that I'm not going to be killed by my phone, I don't feel the slightest confidence about how the general public will react to seeing health warnings on their phones.

I would predict that the health warnings will say, in effect "you don't need to worry about this" rather than "known to have the following lethal effects" -- but what will your reaction be, to seeing "radiation data" on a phone? Does the average phone user understand the difference between "microwave radiation" and "radioactivity" and "sunshine"?