Palms: Are we waiting for USB?
Published: 12 Jul 2001 15:43 BST
I read this in several places this week -- including the FT, and my response was incredulous. What nonsense! If it were true, then what else is a fad? For example, you'll notice that the mobile phone companies are all reporting catastrophic sales figures (Motorola has fallen so far, it is actually on the way back up) Is anybody saying that people are losing faith in their mobiles?
And yet, the figures can't be disputed. Psion's sales are dire; Palm has reported a loss, a huge slump in sales (52 percent down on last year's quarter to June) and we all know how disappointed Microsoft has been with sales of the Pocket PC.
So what is actually happening?
I suspect the problems are going to be invisible to anybody who doesn't actually understand the technology, and they will just get confused. And most people don't understand benchmarks, or what they mean.
But speed is crucial to an understanding of what is going on; and the fact is that the Palm, and several other hand-held devices, are slow devices in a market that wants speed.
By "slow" I don't mean that their processors are not powerful. I've used a standard Handspring and a Handspring Platinum, which clocks at twice the speed, and honestly, I haven't found an application where it matters.
No, the real problem is in the speed of a PC serial port. I'll explain in more detail below. But in a nutshell, the fly in the ointment is Palm's stubborn use of a serial connection at 115 kilobits per second, instead
of a USB connection which can run at up to 12 megabits per second, but are normally 1.5 megabits on low-power handhelds.
For existing users of Palm PC machines, the options are to switch to Handspring, which has always had USB, or to buy the top-of-range Palm V, which does have USB now.
So let's assume there is a pent-up demand for faster connectivity.
First off, it doesn't require much intelligence to see that in times of budget constraint -- and boy! is this one of those times -- people will hang on to what they have, rather than buy the newest version. A Palm PC doesn't stop working just because Palm Computing announces a slightly lighter, sexier-looking machine; you can carry on using it. And the idea of getting the top of range Palm is also the most expensive idea you can have.
If you want to switch to Pocket PC (the Microsoft design) the standard configuration is still serial port. Not only is it serial port, but it is Microsoft's typical cockup, with all sorts of issues relating to setting the default bit rate of your PC and Pocket PC to the same figure.
Nonetheless, even in spite of this, there has been healthy demand for one Pocket PC -- the Compaq iPaq handheld, which is sexy, silver, and full colour. And it has, until this month, been in short supply. Now, like any other discretionary spend, it's in surplus, as people postpone new purchases -- and Compaq has started advertising it aggressively on posters.
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