Will penguins rule? Not any time soon
Published: 12 Mar 2001 14:17 GMT
But whether or not Linux some day shatters our desktop Windows, you need only glance into any school, home or workplace to see that the day of Linux mascot Tux the Penguin's desktop dominion is not today -- and won't be tomorrow, either.
According to a recent IDC report, Windows accounted for 92 percent of client operating system shipments last year. Shipments of desktop Linux were up 25 percent last year but accounted for less than 2 percent of the total client operating system market.
On the bright side -- for Linux, at least -- a large chunk of Microsoft's operating system shipments last year were Windows 9x and Windows ME, a code base that Microsoft plans to take out back and shoot not long after Windows XP emerges from Redmond.
To sell Windows XP, Microsoft will have to convince Windows 9x users that the operating system they're using is lousy and should be replaced. Microsoft has already gotten started on this with magazine advertisements for Windows 2000 that mock a Windows 95 box that's fallen into a "blue screen" and can't get up.
The challenge -- and the opportunity -- for companies such as Red Hat is to convince disgruntled Windows 9x users to switch to Linux rather than shell out cash for a Windows XP upgrade.
Although Linux's considerable system stability edge over Windows will die along with the 9x code base -- as anyone who's already moved to Windows 2000 can attest -- the low price of Linux will remain a significant advantage over Windows. An upgrade version of Windows 2000 Professional retails for $219, and the Windows ME upgrade sells for $109. If Microsoft prices Windows XP Professional and Home Editions similarly, it'll have to vie for upgrade dollars with solid Linux distributions that can be had for $30 or free if downloaded from the Internet.
However, this window of opportunity for Linux may be a small one because as more users begin to obtain Windows XP preloaded on new PCs rather than as an upgrade, the deep price breaks that Microsoft grants OEMs will eat into Linux's cost advantages.
Will little flightless birds dominate the future of desktop computing? TalkBack to me below.
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